# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-03-08 · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR08 · as_of 2026-10-26T20:03:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-08 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR08 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks to the Shield of Americas Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Trillion	trillion	78	54	0.69	YYYnYYnnnn	1	1	0.68	yes
Democrat	democrat	95	65	0.68	YnYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.68	no
Biden	biden	195	135	0.69	YYYnYnYYnn	1	1	0.67	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	112	71	0.63	nnnYYYYYYY	1	1	0.66	yes
Tariff	tariff	134	90	0.67	YnYnnnYYYn	1	1	0.63	yes
Border	border	100	62	0.62	YnYnYYnYYY	1	1	0.62	yes
Stock Market	stock market	46	26	0.57	YnYnnYYnYn	1	1	0.61	no
China	china	121	78	0.64	YYYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.59	no
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	7	5	0.71	YnnYYYY	1	1	0.58	yes
Iran	iran	63	39	0.62	YnnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.58	yes
Hottest	hottest	160	88	0.55	YnYYYnnnYn	1	1	0.58	no
Eight War	eight war	59	34	0.58	YYnYYYnnYn	1	1	0.52	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	4	2	0.5	nYnY	1	1	0.5	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	11	5	0.45	nnnnYYnYYn	1	0	0.5	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			1	1	0.5	no
Gulf of America	gulf of america	9	6	0.67	YYYYnYYnn	1	1	0.49	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.47	no
Terrorist	terrorist	10	4	0.4	YnYYnYnnnn	1	1	0.44	yes
Maduro	maduro	51	20	0.39	YnnYYnYYYn	1	1	0.43	yes
Donroe Doctrine	donroe doctrine	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.43	no
Oil	oil	36	13	0.36	YnYnnYnnYY	1	1	0.41	yes
National Security	national security	9	2	0.22	nnnnYnnYn	1	1	0.4	yes
Cartel	cartel	10	3	0.3	YnnnnYnnYn	1	1	0.39	yes
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	1	0.38	yes
Cuba	cuba	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	1	0	0.36	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	29	7	0.24	YYYnnnYnnn	1	1	0.35	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.35	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	39	13	0.33	YnYnnnnYnn	1	1	0.31	no
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.28	no
Epstein	epstein	87	20	0.23	nnnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.27	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	294	28	0.1	nnnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.22	no