# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2025-09-29 · 35 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP29-2 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:06:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-29 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP29-2 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Press Conference meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu on September 29th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	56	46	0.82	YYYYnYYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Putin	putin	34	26	0.76	YnYYYYYYYY	0.57	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	32	26	0.81	YYnnYYnYYY	0.56	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	31	21	0.68	nYnnYYYYnY	0.51	hist	yes
NATO	nato	25	12	0.48	nYYYYYnYYY	0.5	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	17	12	0.71	YYnnYYnYnY	0.48	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	7	4	0.57	nYnYYnY	0.46	hist	yes
Russia	russia	27	17	0.63	nnYYnnnYYY	0.45	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	10	6	0.6	YYnYYYnnYn	0.44	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	6	4	0.67	nYYYYn	0.43	hist	no
Qatar	qatar	5	2	0.4	nnYnY	0.43	hist	yes
Europe / European	europe|european	4	3	0.75	nYYY	0.42	hist	yes
Iran	iran	20	11	0.55	nnYnYYYnYY	0.41	hist	yes
Antifa	antifa	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.4	hist	no
October 7th	october 7th	1	1	1	Y	0.39	hist	yes
ICE	ice	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.39	hist	no
Syria	syria	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.39	hist	yes
Bibi	bibi	0	0			0.39	hist	yes
Comey	comey	1	1	1	Y	0.37	hist	no
Golden Dome	golden dome	6	3	0.5	YYYnnn	0.36	hist	no
Autopen	autopen	17	8	0.47	YYnnnYYnnn	0.36	hist	no
Hamas	hama	13	6	0.46	nYnnYnYnYn	0.36	hist	yes
Abraham	abraham	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.34	hist	yes
Houthi	houthi	2	1	0.5	nY	0.34	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	16	5	0.31	nnnnnYYnnn	0.34	hist	no
Terrorist	terrorist	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.32	hist	yes
Chicago	chicago	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.32	hist	no
Iron Dome	iron dome	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Oil	oil	13	4	0.31	nnnYnnnnYY	0.3	hist	no
Hezbollah	hezbollah	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.29	hist	no
Palestine	palestine	4	0	0	nnnn	0.24	hist	no
Sanction	sanction	17	3	0.18	nnnnnnnnYn	0.23	hist	no
Portland	portland	0	0			0.32	prior	no
West Bank	west bank	0	0			0.32	prior	no