Will Donald Trump say “Trade Deal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade Deal” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trade Deal
- Probability
- 52% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
It sounds like a trade deal with India is close. Can you go into that?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | Trade Deal |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Trade Deal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Trade Deal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Trade deal | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trade Deal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade Deal” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 29, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trade Deal” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trade Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/trade-deal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=trade%20deal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP