Will Donald Trump say “Shipbuilding”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shipbuilding” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (25%), most recently on Aug 25, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Shipbuilding
- Probability
- 43% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Shipbuilding |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Shipbuilding | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 17, 2026 | Shipbuilding |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Shipbuilding | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Shipbuilding”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shipbuilding” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (25%), most recently on Aug 25, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Shipbuilding” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Shipbuilding’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/shipbuilding (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=shipbuilding · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP