Will Donald Trump say “Chip / Semiconductor”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chip / Semiconductor” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Chip / Semiconductor
- Probability
- 55% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Chip / Semiconductor |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Chip / Semiconductor | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Chip / Semiconductor | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Chip / Semiconductor | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Semiconductor / Chip |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Chip / Semiconductor | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Chip / Semiconductor”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chip / Semiconductor” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Chip / Semiconductor” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Chip / Semiconductor’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/chip-or-semiconductor (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=chip%20%2F%20semiconductor · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP