Will Donald Trump say “North Korea / North Korean”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “North Korea / North Korean” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 3 later appearances without a transcript yet (since Oct 26, 2026) are not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
North Korea / North Korean
- Probability
- 56% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | North Korea / North Korean |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | North Korea / North Korean | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (39 of 49 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 25, 2025 | North Korea / North Korean | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “North Korea / North Korean”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “North Korea / North Korean” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “North Korea / North Korean” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘North Korea / North Korean’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/north-korea-or-north-korean (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=north%20korea%20%2F%20north%20korean · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP