Will Donald Trump say “Missile”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Missile” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (25%), most recently on May 20, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Missile
- Probability
- 41% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…So they shoot and within three minutes another weapon or weapon a missile small you don't need too large actually comes right back goes right…
…everybody's afraid to go fishing. They're afraid of being hit with a missile. So, the fishing industry is dead, but so is the drug industry…
…a deal. And again they refused. The regime continued building a vast missile and drone stockpile that threatened the security of every American service member…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Missile”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Missile” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (25%), most recently on May 20, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Missile” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Missile’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/missile (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=missile · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP