Will JD Vance say “Midnight Hammer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Midnight Hammer” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Midnight Hammer
- Probability
- 49% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…weeks, and since then we destroyed, of course, their nuclear facilities with Midnight Hammer. With. Epic fury, we destroyed their defense industrial base for producing…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Midnight Hammer |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Midnight Hammer |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Midnight Hammer | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Midnight Hammer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Midnight Hammer” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Midnight Hammer” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Midnight Hammer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/midnight-hammer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=midnight%20hammer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP