Will JD Vance say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Ayatollah / Khamenei
- Probability
- 33% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Ayatollah / Khamenei |  Polymarket | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Khamenei / Ayatollah |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Ayatollah / Khamenei”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Ayatollah / Khamenei” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Ayatollah / Khamenei” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Ayatollah / Khamenei’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ayatollah-or-khamenei (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ayatollah%20%2F%20khamenei · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP