Will JD Vance say “National Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “National Security” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (17%), most recently on Jan 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
National Security
- Probability
- 29% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that when he is negotiating with the Iranians, he's focused on the national security objectives that he's trying to achieve. Of course, the President has…
…saying, "Shutdowns are harmful to the economy, the American people, and our national security." And even Democrat Senators Cortez Masto and Fetterman acknowledged that their…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | National Security |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 24, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “National Security” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (17%), most recently on Jan 8, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “National Security” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP