Will JD Vance say “Crazy”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Crazy” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 26, 2026 (75%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Crazy
- Probability
- 54% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we're going to do what we have to do in…
…we'll give him (inaudible). Sorry, I can't get to everybody. Marco's right, this really is chaos. This is crazy. You guys got to behave yourself.
…seriously. What has he said about Greenland? Set to the side the crazy overreactions that I've seen from the press and from certain people in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Crazy”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Crazy” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 26, 2026 (75%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Crazy” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Crazy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/crazy (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=crazy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP