Will JD Vance say “Middle Class”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Middle Class” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (17%), most recently on Nov 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 43¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Middle Class
- Probability
- 28% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…takes a little bit of time to rebuild the foundation of America's middle class economy. I think we've made incredible strides. But our argument to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Middle Class |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Middle Class | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Middle Class | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Middle Class | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Middle Class | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Middle Class | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Middle Class”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Middle Class” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (17%), most recently on Nov 14, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Middle Class” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Middle Class’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/middle-class (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=middle%20class · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP