Will Donald Trump say “Paper Straw”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Paper Straw” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Paper Straw
- Probability
- 47% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | Paper Straw |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Paper Straw |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Paper Straw | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Paper Straw”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Paper Straw” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Paper Straw” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Paper Straw’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/paper-straw (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=paper%20straw · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP