Will Donald Trump say “Elon” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon” 5+ times at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2024 (20%), most recently on Oct 5, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Elon 5+ times
- Probability
- 51% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tremendous respect for, Elhan Omar. And I was saddened to hear that Elon Omar is not her name. It's not It's not Elon Omar. The…
…moderate. So he can go vote with extremists like Abdul Muhammad Aliad. They can be together. and James Telerico and oh no Elon Omar B.
…has been an incredible partner to law enforcement, as has X and Elon Musk. In April, FBI and the Dubai Police announced the arrest of…
…popular. Federal government puts in a thousand and we have tremendous men. Elon just made a big investment. Uh Michael Dell and Susan put in…
…things people have seen ever in government. And I want to thank Elon Musk. You saw what he was doing. He's -- one share to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | Elon 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Elon 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Elon 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Elon 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Elon 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Elon 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon” 5+ times at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2024 (20%), most recently on Oct 5, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Elon 5+ times” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Elon 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/elon-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=elon%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP