Will Donald Trump say “Saudi Arabia”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Saudi Arabia” at 3 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 3, 2024 (30%), most recently on May 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Saudi Arabia
- Probability
- 52% · n=10
- Settled
- 3/10 (30%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the fact is, you know, we have more oil than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined. If and if you go back eight or nine years,…
…coming down fast. We have right and the United States without Venezuela, not including the United States has more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia
…of Morocco, Bahrain. These are the countries that gave Qatar, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and many more. That money goes right to the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Saudi Arabia |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Saudi Arabia |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Saudi Arabia | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Saudi Arabia | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Saudi Arabia”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Saudi Arabia” at 3 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 3, 2024 (30%), most recently on May 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Saudi Arabia” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Saudi Arabia’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/saudi-arabia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=saudi%20arabia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP