Will Donald Trump say “IQ”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “IQ” at 12 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (50%), most recently on Feb 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
IQ
- Probability
- 42% · n=24
- Settled
- 12/24 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to put it mildly. They gave people with a very high 188 IQ and they said, "Please pick the real Dan Sullivan." And they were…
Every settled listing
newest first · 24 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | IQ |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 14, 2026 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 15, 2026 | IQ |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 2, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 1, 2025 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | IQ | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 12, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 5, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | IQ | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2024 | IQ | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | IQ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 31, 2024 | IQ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “IQ”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “IQ” at 12 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (50%), most recently on Feb 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “IQ” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘IQ’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iq (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iq · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP