# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-02-22 · 38 words · K k:KXDJTCPAC-25FEB22 · P p:what-will-trump-say-at-cpac-conference-on-saturday · as_of 2026-10-24T19:15:41Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-02-22 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDJTCPAC-25FEB22 ({word} = w of K rows): If President Trump says {word} as part of his speech at CPAC, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-at-cpac-conference-on-saturday (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his speech at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Putin	putin	1	P	10	8	0.8	YYYYnYYnYY	0.61	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	7	6	0.86	YYYYYnY	0.57	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	4	4	1	YYYY	0.56	hist	yes
Elon/Musk	elon|musk	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.54	hist	yes
Condom	condom	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	no
Hell 5+ times	hell#5	5	P	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
IQ	iq	1	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.52	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	K	15	12	0.8	YYYYYYnYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Zelensky	zelensky	1	P	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.51	hist	yes
FBI/Federal Bureau of Investigation	fbi|federal bureau of investigation	1	P	0	0			0.51	hist	yes
California	california	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.5	hist	no
DOGE	doge	1	P	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.5	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	1	K	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.48	hist	no
Tax	tax	1	K	2	1	0.5	nY	0.48	hist	yes
Ronald/Reagan	reagan|ronald	1	P	0	0			0.47	hist	no
Tesla	tesla	1	K	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.46	hist	no
Million 15+ times	million#15	15	P	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	yes
Trump 3+ times	trump#3	3	P	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	yes
Chuck/Schumer	chuck|schumer	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Fort Knox	fort knox	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	yes
Karoline/Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Palestine	palestine	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Paper Straw	paper straw	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Vladimir/Putin	putin|vladimir	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	yes
Elon 5+ times	elon#5	5	P	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.39	hist	no
Saudi Arabia	saudi arabia	1	K	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.37	hist	no
FEMA	fema	1	K	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	0.37	hist	no
Texas	texa	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	yes
Woke	woke	1	P	3	0	0	nnn	0.36	hist	yes
AI/Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	KP	7	1	0.14	nnnnnYn	0.33	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	60	2	0.03	nnYnnnnYnn	0.18	hist	no
Dictator	dictator	1	P	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Egg	egg	1	P	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Gender	gender	1	P	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Gold	gold	1	P	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
King	king	1	P	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Million 30+ times	million#30	30	P	0	0			0.47	prior	yes