Will Donald Trump say “Condom”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Condom” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 20, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Condom
- Probability
- 51% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Condom”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Condom” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 20, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Condom” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Condom’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/condom (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=condom · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP