Will Donald Trump say “Crimea”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crimea” at 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 28, 2025 (12%), most recently on Apr 28, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crimea
- Probability
- 40% · n=8
- Settled
- 1/8 (12%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming Florida economy, and no amnesty for illegal aliens. But for…
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming Iowa economy, and no amnesty for your illegal aliens. You…
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming South Carolina economy, and no amnesty for illegal aliens. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Crimea |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Crimea | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Crimea | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Crimea |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Crimea | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 2, 2025 | Crimea | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Crimea | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Crimea | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crimea”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crimea” at 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 28, 2025 (12%), most recently on Apr 28, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crimea” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crimea’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crimea (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crimea · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP