# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks by 2025-08-19 (settled) · 37 words · K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-26JAN29 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:01:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-08-19 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBILATERALMENTION-26JAN29 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the Next Bilateral Meeting with a Foreign Leader in the Oval Office, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	45	36	0.8	YYYYYYYYYn	0.77	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	25	21	0.84	YYnYYYYYYn	0.75	hist	no
China	china	29	25	0.86	YnYYYYYYYn	0.72	hist	no
Energy	energy	14	10	0.71	YYYnYYYYYn	0.66	hist	no
Trade	trade	9	6	0.67	nYYYYYYnn	0.58	hist	no
Investment	investment	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	0.57	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	14	10	0.71	YYYYYnnYYn	0.51	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	26	17	0.65	YYnYYnYnnY	0.51	hist	yes
Peace	peace	12	8	0.67	YYYnYYYnnY	0.47	hist	yes
President Xi	president xi	7	5	0.71	YYYYYnn	0.44	hist	no
Iran	iran	18	9	0.5	nYnnYnYYYn	0.44	hist	yes
Election	election	7	5	0.71	YYYYnYn	0.43	hist	yes
Border	border	22	14	0.64	YnnnnYYnYn	0.43	hist	yes
Russia	russia	24	14	0.58	nnYnnYYnnn	0.41	hist	yes
Kiev	kiev	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
Moscow	moscow	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
NATO	nato	18	6	0.33	nnYnnYnnYY	0.32	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	15	3	0.2	nnnnnYYnnn	0.32	hist	yes
Israel / Gaza	gaza|israel	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Withdraw / Withdrawal	withdraw|withdrawal	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Donetsk	donetsk	0	0			0.32	hist	no
Surrender / Surrendering	surrender|surrendering	0	0			0.32	hist	no
Donbas	donba	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	no
Climate	climate	3	0	0	nnn	0.3	hist	no
Taiwan	taiwan	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	0.29	hist	no
Crimea	crimea	6	1	0.17	nnYnnn	0.29	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	2	0	0	nn	0.28	hist	no
Defense	defense	9	2	0.22	nYnnnYnnn	0.26	hist	yes
Oil	oil	9	2	0.22	YnnnnnYnn	0.25	hist	no
Security	security	7	1	0.14	nnnnYnn	0.24	hist	yes
Sanction	sanction	11	2	0.18	YnnYnnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
Drone	drone	10	1	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
Immigration	immigration	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Dead	dead	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Guarantee	guarantee	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Missle	missle	0	0			0.36	prior	no