TBPN: Episode, Nov 6, 2025
On the Nov 6, 2025 episode of TBPN, 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction Market | Yes | 10 | 16 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sports | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Token / Tokenization | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | 0 | 26 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Football | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retirement | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…that we've had for a long time, equities, options, crypto, but then prediction markets have just been ripping. Okay. You know, we've we've been doubling…
…A lot a lot of of people used to play the presidential election Yeah. And have a thesis there that they would play by trading…
…Super Bowl, which we had to pull back, but then we relaunched sports with March Madness, and it's just been on a tear ever since.…
…go up or down. And I think we're moving in that direction. Tokenization is is is solving a lot of the technical problems with that.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-11-06:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP