Will Vlad Tenev say “Election”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Election” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 keynotes we have transcripts for (Dec 17, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

58%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=election

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Vlad Tenev

Election

Probability
58% · n=2
Settled
2/2 (100%)
Last 3 keynotes
said in 1 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Vlad Tenev say during his HOOD Summit '26 Keynote? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during Robinhood's Keynote Event? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say on the TBPN Podcast · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during the Robinhood keynote? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Vlad Tenevspeaker5:57In transcript

…most clearly in the market that started it all, the 2024 presidential election. We offer a much wider array of political contracts today. So even…

What will Vlad Tenev say during the TBPN Podcast? · said 6 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

6 counted.

Vlad Tenevguest2:04:57In transcript

…A lot a lot of of people used to play the presidential election Yeah. And have a thesis there that they would play by trading…

Vlad Tenevguest2:16:14In transcript

Yeah. I mean, I think that initially, before the presidential election last year, prediction markets were part of our 2026 plan. And we were planning…

Every match in the transcript

What will Vlad Tenev say during the HOOD Summit '25 Keynote? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Dec 17, 2025ElectionKalshiYes1
Nov 7, 2025ElectionKalshiYes6

Questions

How often does Vlad Tenev say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Election” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025.
What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Election” next time?
58%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP