Will Vlad Tenev say “Retirement”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Retirement” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 14% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 keynotes, 1 episode; Nov 6, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 41¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Retirement
- Probability
- 14% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 keynotes, 1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…has a different destination. Some of you might be saving for a retirement trip. Others might be looking forward to a safe and fun family…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | Retirement |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Retirement | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Retirement”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Retirement” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Retirement” next time?
- 14%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Retirement’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/retirement (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=retirement · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP