Will Vlad Tenev say “Private”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Private” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 5, 2026.
Of the last 3 keynotes we have transcripts for (Dec 17, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Private
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 3 keynotes
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
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Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Private |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Private”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Private” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Private” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Private’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/private (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=private · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP