What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Crypto / Bitcoin” next time?

53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Vlad Tenev say “Crypto / Bitcoin”?

Name: Vlad Tenev: “Crypto / Bitcoin” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Crypto / Bitcoin” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 9, 2025.

Of the last 3 keynotes we have transcripts for (Dec 17, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 15:07 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Vlad Tenev

Crypto / Bitcoin

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 keynotes: said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Vlad TenevspeakerRobinhood keynote · Dec 17, 2025 · 16:25In transcript

…all these different markets, not to mention all the stocks, options, and cryptos that are already available on Robin Hood. That's where Robin Hood Cortex…

Vlad TenevguestTBPN Podcast, November 6, 2025: OpenAI's "Backstop," The Benefits of Bubbles, Elon's New Comp Package | Bret Taylor, Dave Baszucki, Vlad Tenev, Uri Marchand, Alex Israel, P · Nov 6, 2025 · 1:59:41In transcript

…blue chip assets that we've had for a long time, equities, options, crypto, but then prediction markets have just been ripping. Okay. You know, we've…

What will Vlad Tenev say during his HOOD Summit '26 Keynote? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during Robinhood's Keynote Event? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say on the TBPN Podcast · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during the Robinhood keynote? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during the TBPN Podcast? · not listed

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What will Vlad Tenev say during the HOOD Summit '25 Keynote? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Sep 9, 2025	Crypto / Bitcoin	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Vlad Tenev say “Crypto / Bitcoin”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Crypto / Bitcoin” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 9, 2025.
What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Crypto / Bitcoin” next time?: 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Crypto / Bitcoin’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/bitcoin-or-crypto (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=bitcoin%20%2F%20crypto · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP