Vlad Tenev: HOOD Summit '25 Keynote, Sep 9, 2025
At the keynote on Sep 9, 2025, Vlad Tenev said 4 of the 18 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cortex | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Option | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Point | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Citadel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit card | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ether / Ethereum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lawsuit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meme stock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Order flow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Partnership | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Perpetual future | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Staking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subscriber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Token | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/vlad-tenev:2025-09-09:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=vlad-tenev:2025-09-09:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP