Vlad Tenev: Episode, Feb 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Vlad Tenev say on the TBPN Podcast
Markets
10 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retire / Retirement | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tokenization | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockchain | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVLADTENEVMENTION-26FEB12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP