Will Vlad Tenev say “Token”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Token” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 9, 2025.
Of the last 3 keynotes we have transcripts for (Dec 17, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Token
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 keynotes
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2025 | Token |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Token”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev did not say “Token” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Token” next time?
- 15%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Token’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/token (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=token · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP