Will Vlad Tenev say “Prediction Market”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Prediction Market” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 keynotes, 1 episode; Nov 6, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 67¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Prediction Market
- Probability
- 23% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
10 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that we've had for a long time, equities, options, crypto, but then prediction markets have just been ripping. Okay. You know, we've we've been doubling…
options, same day expiry. And I think prediction markets are a continuation of that because you're starting to see markets for stocks and whether they're…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Prediction Market |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Prediction Market | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Prediction Market | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Prediction Market”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Prediction Market” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Prediction Market” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Prediction Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/prediction-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=prediction%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP