Will “Election” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on The Last Word in 19 of 37 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 6, 2026 (51%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=37, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.

51%from settlement history only · n=37counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=election

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Election

Probability
51% · n=37
Settled
19/37 (51%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 1 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 10 by speakers the rule does not count.

Jon Ossoffguest27:09In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

videoother26:15In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 18 by speakers the rule does not count.

Josh Turekguest29:42In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 4 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

4 counted; 16 by speakers the rule does not count.

Cory Bookerguest42:04In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Cory Bookerguest42:49In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

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Find “Election” in this transcript

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Find “Election” in this transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Find “Election” in this transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 38 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Oct 15, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Oct 7, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Oct 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Oct 5, 2026ElectionKalshiYes4
Sep 30, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Sep 22, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Sep 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Sep 14, 2026ElectionKalshiYes3
Aug 27, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Aug 25, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Aug 19, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jul 30, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jul 22, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 20, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 16, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 15, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jun 30, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jun 23, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 15, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jun 3, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 28, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
May 20, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Apr 6, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Apr 2, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Mar 25, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Mar 24, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Feb 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Election” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on The Last Word in 19 of 37 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 6, 2026 (51%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
What is the probability “Election” is said on The Last Word next time?
51%, from settlement history (n=37). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP