Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026

By Oct 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
5 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 509 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (115 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

42 words · 28 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
France / French Yes4256✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Mexico / Mexican Yes3437✓65%n=3 from settlement history–
Canada / Canadian Yes78✓70%n=9 from settlement history–
Somalia / Somali Yes79✓55%n=2 from settlement history–
Japan / Japanese Yes66✓66%n=4 from settlement history–
Spain / Spanish Yes55✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
India / Indian Yes46✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Taiwan / Taiwanese Yes44✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Italy / Italian Yes44✓62%n=2 from settlement history–
Germany / German Yes34✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Norway / Norwegian Yes33✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian Yes33✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Congo / Congolese Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
South Korea / South Korean Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
North Korea / North Korean Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Palestine / Palestinian Yes12✓69%n=10 from settlement history–
Denmark / Danish Yes11✓67%n=2 from settlement history–
Egypt / Egyptian Yes11✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Brazil / Brazilian Yes12✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Colombia / Colombian Yes13✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
United Kingdom / British Yes11✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Yemen / Yemeni Yes11✓49%n=4 from settlement history–
Qatar / Qatari Yes–0–65%n=2 from settlement history–
Poland / Polish Yes–0–64%n=2 from settlement history–
Turkey / Turkish Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Afghanistan / Afghan Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Ireland / Irish Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Switzerland / Swiss Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Cuba / Cuban open56–54%n=30 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Bahrain / Bahraini open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability22¢ Kalshi
Kuwait / Kuwaiti open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability35¢ Kalshi
UAE / United Arab Emirates open–0–63%n=2 from settlement history72¢ Kalshi
Argentina / Argentinian open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability93¢ Kalshi
Panama / Panamanian open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability57¢ Kalshi
Australia / Australian open–0–62%n=2 from settlement history74¢ Kalshi
Jamaica / Jamaican open–0––new new word, no probability yet12¢ Kalshi
Paraguay / Paraguayan open–0––new new word, no probability yet18¢ Kalshi
Hungary / Hungarian open–0–56%n=3 from settlement history11¢ Kalshi
Sudan / Sudanese open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability16¢ Kalshi
South Africa / South African open–0–55%n=3 from settlement history22¢ Kalshi
Belgium / Belgian open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability19¢ Kalshi
Iceland / Icelandic open–0–52%n=5 from settlement history95¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYCOUNTRY-26NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP