Will Donald Trump say “UAE / United Arab Emirates”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “UAE / United Arab Emirates” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 13, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 71¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
UAE / United Arab Emirates
- Probability
- 63% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | UAE / United Arab Emirates |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 13, 2025 | UAE / United Arab Emirates | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “UAE / United Arab Emirates”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “UAE / United Arab Emirates” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 13, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “UAE / United Arab Emirates” next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘UAE / United Arab Emirates’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/uae-or-united-arab-emirate (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=uae%20%2F%20united%20arab%20emirate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP