# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · next window_week, open until 2026-10-25 · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT26 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:47:42Z
# scope K named · n/y settled · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-22..2026-10-23 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT26 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after October 19, 2026 at 10:30am ET and before Oct 26, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 5 of 10 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-23T22:50:06Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-32 of 38 by p · more: offset=32 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	134	102	0.76	YYYYYYYYYY	8	3	0.88	8	9	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	23	18	0.78	YYYYYYYYYY	8	3	0.85	11	12	yes	1	
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	40	29	0.72	YYYYYYYYYY	8	3	0.84	9	9	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	194	121	0.62	YYYnYYYYYY	8	3	0.74	15	15	yes	1	
Superintelligence / Super Intelligence	super intelligence|superintelligence	4	4	1	YYYY	8	3	0.72	2	2	yes	1	
Melania	melania	87	56	0.64	nnnYYYYYYY	8	3	0.71	8	10	yes	1	
Vivek / Ramaswamy	ramaswamy|vivek	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	8	0	0.68	9	21	yes	1	
Ilhan / Omar	ilhan|omar	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	8	2	0.65	19	23	yes	1	
Blockade	blockade	39	20	0.51	YnYnYnYYYY	8	3	0.65	5	5	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	52	36	0.69	nnnnYnYYYY	8	0	0.64	0	0			
Houthi	houthi	7	2	0.29	nYnnnnY	8	0	0.63	0	0			
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	72	34	0.47	YnnnYnYYYY	8	0	0.62	0	1			
Moon	moon	38	19	0.5	YnnYYnYYYY	8	0	0.61	0	0	yes		1
Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice	ranked choice	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.6	0	0			
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	60	38	0.63	nnYnYYYYnn	8	0	0.6	0	0			
Tomahawk	tomahawk	10	4	0.4	YYnnnnnnYY	8	0	0.59	0	0			
Diesel	diesel	8	5	0.62	YYnYnYYn	8	2	0.55	9	13	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	66	38	0.58	YnnnnYYnYY	8	0	0.52	0	0			
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	34	17	0.5	YnnYYYYnnY	8	2	0.5	5	5			
Ethanol	ethanol	6	2	0.33	nnnnYY	8	1	0.47	2	2	yes	1	
Zacharia	zacharia	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.45	0	0			
Third Term	third term	25	9	0.36	nYYnYYnnnY	8	1	0.43	2	2	yes	1	
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	46	14	0.3	nnYYnnnYYn	8	0	0.43	0	0			
Cybersecurity / Cyber Security	cyber security|cybersecurity	2	0	0	nn	8	1	0.38	1	1			
Stupid Question	stupid question	34	10	0.29	nnnYYnnYYn	8	0	0.35	0	0			
Antifa	antifa	30	6	0.2	nnnYYYnnnn	8	1	0.34	0	0			
Ceasefire	ceasefire	133	19	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.31	0	0			
Nobel	nobel	46	7	0.15	nnnnnYnnnY	8	2	0.3	11	12	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	529	54	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.3	0	0			
Epstein	epstein	141	30	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.23	0	0			
Soleimani	soleimani	23	7	0.3	nnnnnnnnnY	8	0	0.21	0	0	yes		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	67	8	0.12	nnnnnnnnYn	8	0	0.2	0	0