# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-08-16 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17 · as_of 2026-10-26T00:10:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-16 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-06..2026-08-14 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after August 10th, 2026 at 8:00am ET and before Aug 17, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 6 of 8 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:11Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	106	78	0.74	nYnYYnYYYY	8	1	0.85	3	3	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	149	92	0.62	YnnnnnnnYn	8	1	0.8	2	2	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	47	32	0.68	nnnYYnYnnY	8	1	0.74	2	2	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	204	109	0.53	nnYnnnnYYn	8	1	0.73	7	9	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	101	40	0.4	YYYYYYYnnn	8	0	0.72	2	3	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	42	31	0.74	YYYYnYYYYY	8	0	0.7	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	37	25	0.68	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.69	0	0	no		1
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	4	2	0.5	nnYY	8	1	0.68	5	5	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	62	28	0.45	YnYnYYYnYn	8	0	0.67	0	1	yes		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	49	32	0.65	YYYYnYYYnY	8	0	0.66	2	8	yes	1	
Melania	melania	71	44	0.62	nYnnYYYYnY	8	0	0.65	0	0	no		1
Ukraine	ukraine	83	44	0.53	YnYnnYYnnY	8	1	0.58	1	1	yes	1	
Fraud	fraud	77	30	0.39	nnnYnYnnnn	8	1	0.58	5	5	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	73	42	0.58	nnnnYYnYnn	8	0	0.57	0	0	no		1
Windmill	windmill	64	32	0.5	YYYYnYYYnn	8	0	0.56	0	0	yes		1
TikTok	tiktok	60	16	0.27	nnnnYYYYYn	8	0	0.56	0	0	no		1
Kamala	kamala	38	18	0.47	nnYnnnYYYY	8	1	0.55	1	1	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	22	10	0.45	nYnnnYnnnY	8	1	0.55	1	2	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	56	33	0.59	YnYnnnnnYn	8	0	0.54	1	1	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	10	5	0.5	YYYnnnnYnY	8	0	0.49	1	1	yes	1	
Soleimani	soleimani	12	5	0.42	YYnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.45	1	1	yes	1	
JD / Vance	jd|vance	11	3	0.27	nnnYnnnYnn	8	0	0.44	0	12	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	28	8	0.29	nnnnnnYnnY	8	1	0.43	2	3	yes	1	
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	27	9	0.33	nnnnnnnYnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	473	51	0.11	nYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.35	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	24	6	0.25	nnnnnnnYYn	8	0	0.29	0	0	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	26	5	0.19	nnnnnYYnnn	8	1	0.22	7	15	yes	1	
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	21	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.19	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	16	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.18	0	0	no		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	56	6	0.11	nnnnnYYnnn	8	0	0.17	0	0	yes		1
Uranium	uranium	42	3	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.17	0	0	no		1