# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-04-05 (settled) · 49 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR06 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-5 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:52:46Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-05 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR06 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 6, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-5 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-27 of 49 by p · more: offset=27 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	K	67	51	0.76	nYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.85	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	K	96	55	0.57	YYYYYnnYnn	1	1	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	35	25	0.71	YYYnnYYYYY	1	0	0.78	hist	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	K	57	40	0.7	YYYYYYYYnY	1	0	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	K	42	27	0.64	YYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	23	17	0.74	YYnnYYYYYn	1	1	0.74	hist	0	0	no	1
50,000	50 000	K	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	48	29	0.6	YYYnnYYYYn	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	30	17	0.57	YYYYYYnnnn	1	1	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	K	26	18	0.69	YnnYnnYYYY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	34	22	0.65	YYnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Congo	congo	P	9	8	0.89	YYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
Filibuster	filibuster	P	7	5	0.71	YYYYnYn	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	K	13	7	0.54	nnnYnYnYYY	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	14	9	0.64	YYnnnYYYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	26	15	0.58	YYnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gay	gay	P	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Eight War	eight war	K	67	38	0.57	YnYnnnYYYn	1	1	0.58	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	P	17	9	0.53	YYYnnnnYYY	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Kuwait	kuwait	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Delcy / Rodriguez	delcy|rodriguez	P	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Dark cloud	dark cloud	P	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Jerusalem	jerusalem	P	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	K	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Hottest	hottest	K	191	99	0.52	YnnnnYnnYY	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	P	27	11	0.41	nnYYYnnYnY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
April Fool	april fool	P	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1