# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-11-12 · 37 words in 38 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV12 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-the-private-dinner-on-november-12 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:01:54Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-11-12 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV12 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks at the Arlington National Cemetery, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-the-private-dinner-on-november-12 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	1	K	58	46	0.79	YYnYYYnYYY	0.76	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	61	50	0.82	nYYYYnYYnY	0.73	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	K	99	77	0.78	YYYYYnYYnY	0.71	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	K	18	13	0.72	nYYYYnYYnY	0.63	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	30	20	0.67	YYYnnnYYnY	0.6	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	33	23	0.7	nYnnYYYYYn	0.59	hist	no
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	1	P	3	3	1	YYY	0.56	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	60	33	0.55	YnYnnYnnnn	0.55	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	59	36	0.61	nnnYYnYnnn	0.54	hist	no
250	250	1	K	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.53	hist	yes
Peace	peace	1	K	20	13	0.65	nYYnYYYnnY	0.53	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	59	36	0.61	nnnYYnYnnn	0.52	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	62	37	0.6	YYYnYnnnnn	0.51	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	60	22	0.37	nYYYYYYnnY	0.49	hist	no
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	1	K	7	4	0.57	YYYnYnn	0.48	hist	no
World War	world war	1	K	8	4	0.5	nYnnnYYY	0.47	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	K	19	10	0.53	YYnnnYYYnn	0.46	hist	no
Biden / Autopen 4+ times	autopen|biden#4	4	P	0	0			0.46	hist	no
Darth Vader	darth vader	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Honor	honor	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	yes
Too late / Fed	fed|too late	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.41	hist	no
God	god	1	K	7	3	0.43	YYnnnnY	0.41	hist	yes
Communist	communist	1	P	6	3	0.5	nYYnnY	0.4	hist	no
Tariff / Investment 5+ times	investment|tariff#5	5	P	0	0			0.4	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	K	18	8	0.44	nnnYnnYYnY	0.39	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	K	44	19	0.43	nYnYnYYnnY	0.39	hist	no
IQ	iq	1	P	8	3	0.38	YYnnnnnY	0.39	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	1	P	12	4	0.33	YYYnnnnnnn	0.34	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	K	29	10	0.34	YYYnnnnYnY	0.31	hist	no
Hell 2+ times	hell#2	2	P	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.3	hist	no
Water	water	1	K	20	5	0.25	nnnnYnnnnn	0.26	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	1	K	13	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.13	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	176	18	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.07	hist	no
Brave / Bravery	brave|bravery	1	K	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Affordability	affordability	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Mortgage / Loan 2+ times	loan|mortgage#2	2	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Supreme	supreme	1	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Thank you 10+ times	thank you#10	10	P	0	0			0.4	prior	no