Will Donald Trump say “Walz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Walz” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (18%), most recently on Feb 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Walz
- Probability
- 38% · n=11
- Settled
- 2/11 (18%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…open up a fake daycare. I'll tell Keith Ellison, I'll tell Governor Walz, I'm taking care of 200 kids. Send me a check for $30…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Walz |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Walz |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Walz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Walz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Walz | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Walz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Walz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Walz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Walz | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Walz | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Walz | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Walz”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Walz” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (18%), most recently on Feb 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Walz” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Walz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/walz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=walz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP