Will Donald Trump say “Ghislaine / Maxwell”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ghislaine / Maxwell” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (11%), most recently on Aug 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ghislaine / Maxwell
- Probability
- 44% · n=9
- Settled
- 1/9 (11%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Ghislaine / Maxwell |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Ghislaine / Maxwell | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ghislaine / Maxwell”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ghislaine / Maxwell” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (11%), most recently on Aug 19, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ghislaine / Maxwell” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ghislaine / Maxwell’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ghislaine-or-maxwell (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ghislaine%20%2F%20maxwell · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP