# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-02-24 · 47 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR02 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:31:40Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR02 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	185	129	0.7	YYYYYYnnnn	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Pelosi	pelosi	5	5	1	YYYYY	1	0	0.62	hist	yes
Dell	dell	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Modi	modi	4	3	0.75	YYnY	1	0	0.55	hist	no
Charlie Kirk	charlie kirk	0	0			1	0	0.54	hist	yes
Nicki Minaj	nicki minaj	0	0			1	0	0.54	hist	no
Kamala	kamala	17	9	0.53	YnYYnYnnYY	1	1	0.53	hist	no
Obama	obama	15	8	0.53	YYYYnnnYYn	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Witkoff	witkoff	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.53	hist	yes
Usha	usha	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	8	3	0.38	YnnnnYYn	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Zelensky	zelensky	7	5	0.71	nnYYYYY	1	0	0.51	hist	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	43	23	0.53	YYYnYYYYnn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Kavanaugh	kavanaugh	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.49	hist	no
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Warsh	warsh	0	0			1	0	0.49	hist	no
Tulsi / Gabbard	gabbard|tulsi	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.48	hist	no
Pam / Bondi	bondi|pam	8	7	0.88	YYYYYYYn	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Jared / Kushner	jared|kushner	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.47	hist	yes
Keir / Starmer	keir|starmer	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Putin	putin	62	36	0.58	nnnYnYYnnY	1	1	0.46	hist	no
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	13	6	0.46	nnnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Howard / Lutnick	howard|lutnick	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Pocahontas	pocahonta	21	13	0.62	YYnYnnnnnY	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Reagan	reagan	9	4	0.44	nnnYYnYnY	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Bessent	bessent	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Homan	homan	0	0			1	1	0.44	hist	no
Newsom / Newscum	newscum|newsom	0	0			1	1	0.44	hist	no
Prince Mohammed	prince mohammed	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	no
Thune	thune	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	no
Kash / Patel	kash|patel	6	3	0.5	YnYYnn	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Lincoln	lincoln	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Hegseth	hegseth	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Clinton	clinton	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.41	hist	no
President Xi	president xi	16	7	0.44	nnYnnYnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Walz	walz	8	2	0.25	nYnnnnnY	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	8	1	0.12	Ynnnnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Maduro	maduro	48	18	0.38	YYYYnnYYnY	1	1	0.38	hist	yes
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	6	1	0.17	nnYnnn	1	0	0.37	hist	no
Judy Shelton	judy shelton	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.37	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	21	5	0.24	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	80	18	0.23	nYnnYnnnnn	1	0	0.27	hist	no
Bad Bunny	bad bunny	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.25	hist	no
Gianni / Infantino	gianni|infantino	0	0			1	0	0.49	prior	no
Prince Andrew	prince andrew	0	0			1	0	0.49	prior	no
Satoshi	satoshi	0	0			1	0	0.49	prior	no