# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-02-24 · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR01 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:00:22Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
New York	new york	26	18	0.69	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	13	10	0.77	YYnYYYnYYY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Iran	iran	50	30	0.6	nnYnnnnYnY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Congo	congo	7	6	0.86	YYYYYnY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
India	india	15	11	0.73	YYYYnYYnYn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
China	china	116	75	0.65	nnnYnYYYYY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Gaza	gaza	16	6	0.38	YnnnnnnYYY	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
Iowa	iowa	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Memphis	memphis	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Gulf of America	gulf of america	6	5	0.83	YYYYnY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Russia	russia	52	29	0.56	nnYYnYnYYn	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
Israel	israel	50	27	0.54	YYnnnnnYnY	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
Detroit	detroit	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Alaska	alaska	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Korea	korea	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Florida	florida	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	15	8	0.53	nnnnnnYYnY	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Canada	canada	10	5	0.5	YYnnYnnYnY	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Saudi Arabia	saudi arabia	8	2	0.25	YnnnnnnY	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	46	25	0.54	nYYnnYYnnY	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
California	california	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
Japan	japan	10	6	0.6	YYnnYYYnYn	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Arizona	arizona	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Somalia	somalia	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Colombia	colombia	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Cuba	cuba	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Portland	portland	7	3	0.43	nnnYYYn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
El Salvador	el salvador	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Argentina	argentina	7	2	0.29	nnnnYYn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.42	hist	yes
Mount McKinley	mount mckinley	0	0			1	0	0.42	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	37	15	0.41	YYnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Chicago	chicago	10	4	0.4	YnnnnYYYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Taiwan	taiwan	9	2	0.22	nYnnnnYnn	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Iceland	iceland	3	0	0	nnn	1	1	0.37	hist	no
Palestine	palestine	12	1	0.08	nYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	no
Epstein Island / Little Saint James	epstein island|little saint jame	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
Kennedy Center	kennedy center	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no