Will Donald Trump say “Midterm / Primary”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midterm / Primary” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Midterm / Primary
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…on the ballot, these are just easy statistics to remember. So every year I was on the ballot, we killed in the midterm because people
…pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like a military invasion. And if they win the midterms,
…drug prices anywhere in the world. That's a we should win the midterms, Darlene, just with the favored nation. So, we've taken we had the…
…We are very early right now. We have to get through the midterms. We'll see how it goes. I'm going to a rally in North…
They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running. I did that already and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | Midterm / Primary |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Midterm / Primary”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Midterm / Primary” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Midterm / Primary” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Midterm / Primary’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/midterm-or-primary (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=midterm%20%2F%20primary · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP