Will Donald Trump say “Scam / Hoax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Scam / Hoax” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (75%), most recently on Apr 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Scam / Hoax
- Probability
- 45% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…they are. And they're often part of a sophisticated criminal syndicate operating scam centers all around the world. Almost three-quarters of American adults have been…
…also declared a national emergency on energy and terminated the Green New Scam. One of the greatest hoaxes in the history of our country. And…
…and billions of dollars, taxpayer money, through fraudulent childcare centers and other scams, including the infamous Quality Learing Centers, the learing -- remember the learing?…
…This is the group that came up with the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax, the Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine hoax, climate change, open borders, whoever wins AI,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Scam / Hoax |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Hoax / Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Scam / Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Scam / Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Scam / Hoax”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Scam / Hoax” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (75%), most recently on Apr 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Scam / Hoax” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Scam / Hoax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hoax-or-scam (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hoax%20%2F%20scam · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP