# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-24 · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC30 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-christmas-eve-service-member-calls · as_of 2026-10-25T04:30:05Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-12-24 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 48th Kennedy Center Honors, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-christmas-eve-service-member-calls (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trillion	trillion	1	K	44	33	0.75	YYYYYYnYnY	0.72	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	K	137	103	0.75	nYnYYnYYYY	0.66	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	K	96	67	0.7	YnYnnYnYYY	0.66	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	57	38	0.67	nnnYYYYnnY	0.6	hist	no
F-35	f 35	1	P	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	0.58	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	104	58	0.56	nnnnYYnnYY	0.57	hist	no
China	china	1	K	90	60	0.67	YYnnnnnnnY	0.54	hist	no
Border	border	1	K	81	49	0.6	nYnYYYYnYY	0.54	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	KP	31	16	0.52	nYnYYYYnYn	0.53	hist	no
Election	election	1	K	53	32	0.6	YYnYnnYnYY	0.52	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	76	33	0.43	nnYYYYYYYY	0.52	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times	billion|million|trillion#12	12	P	9	5	0.56	nYnYnYYYn	0.5	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	P	44	25	0.57	YnYYnnYYYY	0.49	hist	no
Anniversary / Olympics	anniversary|olympic	1	P	0	0			0.48	hist	no
Hell	hell	1	P	16	7	0.44	YnYYnnYYnn	0.46	hist	no
Hannukah	hannukah	1	P	0	0			0.46	hist	no
Space Force	space force	1	P	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.45	hist	yes
Job 15+ times	job#15	15	P	2	2	1	YY	0.44	hist	no
Biden 3+ times	biden#3	3	P	13	7	0.54	YYYnYYnYnn	0.44	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	K	21	11	0.52	nnYYnnnYYY	0.44	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	P	21	6	0.29	nnnnnnnYYY	0.43	hist	no
Fed / Federal Reserve	fed|federal reserve	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.42	hist	no
Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterated|obliteration	1	P	2	1	0.5	nY	0.42	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	1	P	12	4	0.33	nnYYnnYnnn	0.39	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	K	34	16	0.47	nnYnnYYnnY	0.38	hist	no
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	1	P	16	6	0.38	nnnnnnYYYn	0.38	hist	no
Golden	golden	1	P	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.38	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	1	K	22	7	0.32	YnnnYnnnYn	0.36	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	K	36	15	0.42	nnYYnYnYnn	0.35	hist	no
Economy	economy	1	K	28	13	0.46	YnnnnnnnnY	0.34	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	1	K	47	23	0.49	nYnnYYYYnn	0.29	hist	no
N Word	n word	1	P	3	0	0	nnn	0.29	hist	no
Bone	bone	1	K	4	0	0	nnnn	0.24	hist	no
Woke	woke	1	K	34	4	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	216	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.07	hist	no
Christmas 7+ times	christma#7	7	P	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Grinch	grinch	1	P	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Thailand	thailand	1	P	0	0			0.41	prior	no