Will JD Vance say “Trump” 5+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Trump” 5+ times at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Trump 5+ times
- Probability
- 39% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…things in order to build upon the great success of the first Trump administration and deliver wins for working people: no taxes on Social Security,…
…guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is…
…seen a much better crop of talent come into Washington since Donald Trump has been the leader of the party and the leader of the…
…doing, in order to help coordinate this remarkable interagency effort from the Trump administration but also to make sure that we prosecute the bad guys…
…The answer is a decision made by the Biden administration that the Trump administration working with congressional Republicans undid. We turned off that money spigot…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trump 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Trump (5+ times) |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Trump (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| May 28, 2026 | Trump (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Trump 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Trump 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Trump 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Trump” 5+ times at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Trump 5+ times” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Trump 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/trump-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=trump%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP