Remarks transcript, Aug 10, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Aug 10, 2026, Donald Trump said 8 of the 29 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 29 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
29 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 29 of 29- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 57%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 48%n=224 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 60%n=327 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 45%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 24%n=221 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 22%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=316 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=207 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 16%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=476 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
162 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
But they've been bad for, they say, 47—it's actually 50 now. You know, 47, they've been saying it for 3 years. But for 50 years they've been the bully of the Middle East. What they've done is terrible. They've killed hundreds of thousands of people. They've killed people. They've wounded and maimed people with the legs, the arms. You know, with the—the roadside bomb is their bomb. They're very proud of it. And now they're paying a price.
Thank you very much, everybody.
Can I ask a question on the on the Fed, sir? On the Fed. You've been calling Chairman Warsh. What do you talk about with him? You've been calling Chairman Warsh, occasionally. What do you talk about with him—the Fed Chair?
No, actually, the Wall Street Journal had a wrong story. They said—he said I spoke to him. No, I have tremendous respect for Kevin Warsh. I've only spoken to him one time, briefly, a few days ago. Just a conversation.
Look, he's going to do it. He's going to run it. I know what he'd like to do, but he has to run it. He's got a board. It's not only him. If it was up to him, it would be different, but he's got a board.
But I've only—you know, they said I speak to him all the time. No, I've spoken to him one time since his assumption, since he took over. And great conversation but just a—he's a great guy. You know, he's my pick, and I'm going with him a hundred percent.
But they made it sound like I live and breathe—you know, I speak to Kevin all the time, every time. [ Laughter ] I spoke to him one time.
Okay. Thank you very much, everybody.
Any response to Netanyahu rejecting the Hamas deal?
Well, I put it out today on Truth. I do. I have a response. I put it out today on Truth. Good response.
The relationship is very good. Yes.
Thank you.
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