Press conference transcript, Jun 17, 2026 (Donald Trump)
At the press conference on Jun 17, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 32 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 32 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
32 words · 22 settled yes · our count agreed on 32 of 32- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal / Settled | Yes | 34 | 43 | ✓ | 66%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 28 | 32 | ✓ | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 26 | 44 | ✓ | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 21 | 25 | ✓ | 62%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 19 | 21 | ✓ | 54%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 36%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 8 | 10 | ✓ | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 50%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | 38%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 65%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 54%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| B-52 / B-2 | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 65%n=272 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 64%n=160 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 45%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 29%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 24%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 39%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Toll | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rebuilt the Military | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=399 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
345 passages · part 3 of 3Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
The U.K.—I said, "It would be nice if you sent ship." I didn't put a hard sell on, but I said, "It'd be nice if you sent some ships." And the Prime Minister said, "They'll be there, sir, as soon as soon as the war is over." I said: "Did he just say that? I couldn't believe it, actually."
Japan has offered to get involved, but, I mean, I'll be honest, Japan was not willing to get involved during the war. I asked her. I said, "Do you want to get involved a little bit?" I didn't put the heavy sell on, but they said, "No, we don't want to get involved."
Nobody did. We did it ourselves with Israel and with the Arab States that got hit—surprisingly hit.
Yes.
Yes, please. Go ahead.
Thanks a lot, Mr. President. Question on Brazil: I would like to know: How was your interaction here in Évian during the G–7 with the Brazilian President Lula? Did you talk about the new U.S. tariffs on Brazil? Did you talk about the U.S. designation of criminal gangs as terrorist——
Yes. Yes, we did. We did.
How was it?
I spent a lot of time with him, actually. And it's become a little rough country, right? Politically. It's been a little dangerous, politically. You're talking about Brazil?
Yes.
Yes. It's been nasty. I hear they arrested somebody that's running for office today. I found that out after we left. I just said goodbye to him, and I heard that they arrested the Bolsonaro Jr. He was doing well in the polls, and they arrested him because he made a statement in Texas. They arrested him, or they want to arrest him. They have something out for his arrest. No, they play pretty tough.
But nobody plays tougher than the United States. Look, our elections are totally rigged. We have rigged elections.
Please. In the back. Yes, sir. Go ahead.
Thank you so much, President.
Thank you.
Sumu Sakamoto, the Asahi Shimbun. For G–7, the concept of the rule of law has long been considered the core principle. During this summit, any of the leaders express any concerns on the possible violation of international law on the attack on Iran?
No. No. Actually, the opposite. They felt they were very dangerous. They were very relieved because they could get hit too. They were very relieved.
No, we never discussed that. They—no, it would be the opposite. They broke the law. They killed thousands of people. They killed thousands of our soldiers and hundreds of thousands of people.
Yes, please go ahead.
Go ahead.
Okay.
Mr. President——
Yes.
yesterday, the Pakistan thanks for the Chinese Government to help make peace talk between Iran and the United States. So what do you think about the China's work to get the United States and the Iran sitting down to talk and make the deal? And the second question is——
Okay, okay. Let me answer the question.
Okay.
So I think China has been terrific. I told you that before. They could have been bad. They could have sent in—to try and block or break the blockade, they could have sent in an oil ship with six destroyers alongside of it on each side. They didn't do that.
President Xi helped me. He tried to help, and I think he probably helped get it solved. You know, they get 50 percent of their oil from that location, so that wasn't that easy. President Xi was fantastic. He tried to help me solve it, and he didn't give any big weaponry. I guess something—we'll find something somewhere along the line. But he didn't give any big weaponry, I can tell you that. No, I think China was—I couldn't ask for much more.
Again, they were impacted because they get more than 50 percent of their oil from the Hormuz Strait. And no, I thought they were fantastic.
Okay.
How about one more question right here? Go ahead, please.
The latest YouGov/Economist poll shows that Democrats have lost a 5-point edge on the generic congressional ballot. They just have now just a 2-point lead since February. Do you think that they're losing momentum?
Well, I see the Republicans in generics. You know, generics are very important. I don't know how accurate, because I see a lot of bad polls.
Polls are very dishonest, just like a lot of reporters, like these people over here are very dishonest. CNN, ABC—that's a whole group of them over there. They're really dishonest people. But, you know—and—and, really, networks are very dishonest. And they have to straighten themselves out or they're not going to be very successful, because people don't believe them anymore.
But no, the generics are very interesting, because the Republicans are coming up strong even before this. You know why? They're seeing all these lunatics, like the guy in Maine with the swastika. You know, for 10 years they've been calling me a Nazi, and now they have a Nazi running. He's got a tattoo on him. I've been denying it for 10 years. They know it's not so, but they've been calling—I don't think they can call it to me anymore. You know?
One more. One more.
Go ahead, Peter. Let me finish with Peter, because he's been better to me than he's been to Biden.
I—thank you, President Trump. I have a question about this weekend. Why not stick around for the signing ceremony with this Iran peace deal?
I might.
You might?
Yes, I might, but I'd rather—this is a memorandum of understanding. It's very important, but it might not be the kind of a document that I should be signing.
Is there some element to this where you send the Vice President, if it works out, great. You look like a genius for sending him. And if it doesn't work out, it's the Vice President's fault.
I like that idea. Sure. Why not? [ Laughter ] This way, if it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming J.D. You'd better be careful, J.D. [ Laughter ] He's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here.
Yes, I like that idea. I think it's a good idea.
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you. Thank you, everybody.
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