Press conference transcript, Jun 17, 2026 (Donald Trump)

The President's News Conference in Évian-les-Bains, France
Wed, Jun 17Press conferenceOfficial transcriptDonald Trump

At the press conference on Jun 17, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 32 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 32 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

32 words · 22 settled yes · our count agreed on 32 of 32

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Deal / Settled Yes3443✓66%n=25 from settlement history–
Nuclear 3+ timesYes2832✓49%n=9 from settlement history–
Iran 5+ timesYes2644✓59%n=8 from settlement history–
Oil Yes2125✓62%n=82 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli Yes1921✓54%n=52 from settlement history–
Invest / Invested / Investment Yes1414✓49%n=4 from settlement history–
Bibi / Netanyahu Yes99✓36%n=44 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes810✓57%n=12 from settlement history–
Stock Market Yes88✓50%n=97 from settlement history–
Hormuz Yes57✓38%n=45 from settlement history–
Barack Hussein Obama Yes33✓65%n=95 from settlement history–
Fake News Yes33✓54%n=119 from settlement history–
Russia / Russian Yes33✓45%n=10 from settlement history–
B-52 / B-2 Yes33✓37%n=6 from settlement history–
Biden Yes22✓65%n=272 from settlement history–
Democrat Yes23✓64%n=160 from settlement history–
250 Yes22✓45%n=35 from settlement history–
Peace Yes24✓29%n=42 from settlement history–
Rare Earth / Mineral Yes22✓24%n=41 from settlement history–
Drone Yes11✓44%n=49 from settlement history–
Ukraine Yes11✓39%n=62 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence Yes11✓38%n=169 from settlement history–
First Term No00✓55%n=20 from settlement history–
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration No00✓52%n=28 from settlement history–
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation No01✓48%n=23 from settlement history–
World Cup No00✓45%n=34 from settlement history–
NATO No00✓41%n=81 from settlement history–
Toll No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Rebuilt the Military No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
America First No00✓32%n=46 from settlement history–
Uranium No00✓27%n=20 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓13%n=399 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.

Transcript

345 passages · part 2 of 3

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

But this evening, I look forward to a very special dinner with President Macron and his fabulous wife at the Palace of Versailles. I sort of like that pass—palace has a lot of gold. I want to check it out. It's a beautiful palace, maybe the most beautiful of all. I hope you're going to get to see it. The ones that are traveling with me, I hope you're going to get to see it, because it's amazing.

But they asked me if I'd stay a little bit longer and go to Paris, so I'll get home a little bit later, but it will be a nice dinner, but I'm interested to see it. I love—I mean, that's the ultimate, I guess. It's the ultimate of its type. Louis the XIV.

Celebrating the 250th anniversary of America's founding and America's oldest alliance, and we're celebrating that a little bit tonight. They'll have the biggest people in Europe at the dinner, and those people love our country.

And hopefully Europe is going to find its way. Europe is having a lot of hard times. They're doing some things very badly on energy and on immigration. They're doing things very badly, and we'll be talking about that tonight.

So, with that all said, if you want to ask us any questions, feel free to ask the people behind me.

Yes.

Peter [Peter Doocy, Fox News].

Q. Bonjour41:46

You've been clear, President Trump, the United States is not going to directly pay Iran, but the U.S. is going to let the Iranians start making billions of dollars selling oil, accessing this reconstruction fund——

Only if they're doing things right.

Questions and answers

Qreporter42:03

But what I——

Only if—Peter, only if—we're not doing anything. We're not putting up money. Only if they're doing things right. If they're doing things right, if people want to invest, they can invest, but they had this $300 million fund. It's only—$300 billion fund—It's only if they're doing things right.

Remember this also. When you talk about billions of dollars, they've had much more than a trillion dollars' worth of damage done. They've got a long way. They'll be 15 to 20 years to rebuild what they have right now.

So they have to behave themselves. If they're not behaving, they get hit again. You know, they'll be hit again, because we can do it very easily. It's going to take a long way for them to build back their anti-aircraft stuff. It's going to take—and you know, the other thing. I want to thank China, President Xi. I was with him, and he stayed neutral—totally neutral, and I appreciate it.

And I want to thank Vladimir Putin. He was very neutral. They could have made it much more difficult for us. And I want to say it. You know, somebody would say: "Oh, that's terrible. He's thanking—he's thanking President Xi of China."

Well, let me tell you, I had a long talk with him. You know, they have shoulder weapons to knock down airplanes that—it's not like the real deal, but they're accurate. They're fairly accurate. I said, "I would really appreciate you not giving or selling any of that stuff to Iran." And you know what? For the most part he didn't——

Qreporter43:34

Can you——

So I just want to thank them, because they made it a lot better.

Qreporter43:40

Can you explain though what the difference is between giving Iran U.S. dollars and unfreezing U.S. dollars for the Iranians?

Well, the unfreezing, that's an easy one to answer. We have taken a lot of their money, and we have their money. We have taken their money. It's not our money. It's their money, and we froze it. At a certain point in time, I guess, we're going to have to give it back. You know, if we didn't give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again. If you took their money—because I thought about it. You know, I'm not the most perfect person.

I said to Scott: "Scott, why don't we keep their money? What the hell are we giving it back to them?" But you know, people from lots of nations—some nations we don't agree with—they have their money—the dollar has become very strong under me—and they don't want to have a little conflict with somebody and end up having the United States just take their money. So, if you do that, you really don't have a system.

Qreporter44:41

And I did just want to ask you about this. A wise man once said in January of 2020, "Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." That wise man——

Who said that?

Qreporter44:56

Donald Trump.

That's what I thought you were going to say.

Qreporter44:59

So how you go back to the United States and convince a skeptical American public that this deal is a win?

Well, look, here, they lost militarily. Okay? It's very tough, because I know that no matter what—if I would go—by the way, if I'd go another 3 or 4 weeks, those same people that are critical would say: "He went too long. He should have done"—you know, no matter what.

If they raised the white flag of surrender, and if they said: "Praise be to Allah, Donald Trump is the greatest President ever. We totally concede. We totally give up. This war is over. We have failed." The New York Times and CNN and a couple of others—they're not all that dishonest—they'd say, "Iran had a great victory." Okay? And they practically do that.

You know, it's amazing. When we knocked out their last year—they had 159 ships. When we knocked out the last ship, the Times refused to do a story on it. I said, "Why wouldn't you?" They don't have a navy, and you don't want to do a story on it. They don't have an air force; you don't want to do a story.

We need a fair press. It's—and that's why they're all doing so badly, because they lost credibility.

When I win in a landslide and I had 93-percent bad press—they take good stories about me and make them bad. But the only reason that happened is because they have so little—the media has so little credibility that the people voted for me. Ninety-three percent of the stories on network—ABC is horrible. I think ABC is the worst. NBC is terrible, and CBS is terrible. CNN, obviously. And I never get good stories. No matter what I do. I could do the greatest thing. I won't get good stories on this. I'll get it from fair media. I'll get it from—all over the world, they're writing good. But no matter what I do, I'm going to get bad press. I know that.

Now, if I did the opposite, if I went out and continued to bomb them for another four—just bomb the hell out of them, I'd get bad press on that. No. There's nothing I can do.

But what this does is, it allows the ships to go. If we stop—if we keep bombing, those ships won't be going, and you're talking about $500-, $600-, $700 million a day. It's a lot of money. A lot of money. That's why the world is okay. It's liquid. It's fine.

Also, we run out of reserves in about 4 weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out. And there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. And you want to see bedlam? So, for all those so-called geniuses that want to show me how smart they are, ask them why didn't they blow up General Soleimani? Ask that of the general and a couple of other people that I like very much, but boy, are they wrong.

Go ahead.

Oh, how about you? Thank you, Peter. I'd give you more, Peter, but people say I like you too much.

Qreporter47:47

Thank you, Mr. President. Bonsoir , Mr. President.

You know, he told me that first day in office—he asked me, like, seven questions. I answered all of them. Is this true? He said, "He just answered more questions in one meeting than Joe Biden did in 4 years." Okay? You know, I'm not going to get you in trouble, but that's what you said.

Go ahead.

Q. Bonsoir48:06

, Mr. President. In the "Art of the Deal," you write about the importance of leverage.

Yes.

Qreporter48:10

Obviously, you have a lot of leverage when it comes to Iran, whether it's militarily——

Tremendous leverage.

Q. ——48:15

or through economic sanctions. What leverage, sir, do you have when it comes to Israel and Hizballah to ensure that they abide by the cease-fire?

Well, I think we have leverage just by the fact that we really have—Iran now has to be good. They have to behave, and we might help. That's a much smaller conflict. It's a conflict that should be able to be over with. I'm surprised it's taken so long, and it's a much smaller. But we have a lot of leverage.

We have—look, we have the greatest military anywhere in the world. We have the strongest, most powerful—look at the blockade.

By the way, the blockade was more impactful than all of the bombing raids, where we dropped a billion dollars' worth of bombs on Iran. The blockade was so incredible. The naval blockade, the admiral, the whole thing—not one ship got through. That meant no money got through. They were dying; they had no money. They have inflation that's 250 or 300 percent. They have no money. We have tremendous leverage.

We have the leverage of the economy, as an example.

We'll get that done. That's a small one, and we'll work with Israel and get it done, but I'd like to do it.

I mean, you have people living there—buildings are being dropped on top of them or right alongside of them. How would you like to live there? It's so unfair, especially Beirut.

You know, you go into Beirut, and I looked at the scene 2 days ago—yesterday, where they hit—that was a big hit. That was unnecessary, in my book.

Yes, please.

Qreporter49:54

Two questions. If you could clarify something you said just a few minutes ago. One of the goals of Epic Fury, going into it—you said was to——

Say it again. Speak up.

Qreporter50:01

Sorry. One of the goals of Epic Fury, you said going into it, was to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles and its capabilities to build more.

Yes.

Qreporter50:09

Why is it acceptable to you now that they keep some of that capability? And Iran is——

What are they keeping? What are they keeping? They have less than other nations now. We knocked out probably 84, 85 percent of their missiles. The rest of them are underground. They can't even get them out.

You know, the other night's raid—I think it was on the first night—we knocked out hundreds of their missiles, actually by mistake.

We were hitting an area, and it—you know, you can sort of see when the bombs are going off, and then you see one that looks like: "Wow. What happened?" A lot of missiles knocked out.

No—but what are you going to do? Let's spend another 2 weeks and give them none. They don't want to be firing missiles right now. They're going to have a hard time rebuilding. They're going to have a hard time rebuilding.

And if people from the Middle East—you know, if people want to invest—and, again, they don't have to invest at all—but if they do want to invest, it does have oil; it does have, probably, a future, but it's going to take a long time.

But are you going to let the 91 million people starve to death?

I mean, one of the things I was very intent on—they have water desalinization plants, very good ones. I could have knocked them out in 5 minutes, just like I knocked out Kharg Island. I knocked out everything but the oil. I said, "Twenty-five"—it was so complete. The only thing there is the pipes coming with the oil, because I didn't want to ruin the world market, because they do a lot of money.

But I didn't want to do that, no. It would have been so easy. It would have been easier, and I would have satisfied a group of 10 percent of the people, but it would have been the wrong thing to do.

Qreporter51:43

And——

And it could have caused it a—it could have caused an international depression.

Qreporter51:47

And Iran's position——

Maybe not.

Qreporter51:49

Iran's position has always been that their nuclear program was for civilian purposes. If they come back after the signing of this and say they want to continue to have a civilian nuclear program——

Yes.

Q. ——51:57

is that acceptable to you?

Well, I've said to them—always, I say: "Look, you have, probably, the third largest oil reserves in the world. What the hell do you need nuclear for?"

Qreporter52:07

Mr. President——

You need nuclear for some electricity? So, I've always felt that way. So we're—we've been pretty tough on that. You know, it's also—it is a little hard, though, when you say that somebody wants it. Other people have it. Other adjoining states have it, and you're not letting them have it for purposes of electricity or things like that. It's always a little tough. You have to use a little common sense.

Please.

New York Times, please.

Qreporter52:32

Thank you, Mr. President for the question.

Thank you.

Qreporter52:35

Now that you're approaching a new phase in this conflict with Iran, can you now say whether you will hold anyone in your administration accountable for the strike on a school that killed more than a hundred children on the first day of the war?

No, if it was a fault—and as you know, that's under investigation.

Such a strange question to be asked at this date, because you're talking about a long time ago. But nobody did that on purpose. I guess you'd have to say to—about them: "What about the thousands of soldiers that they blew up when they opened their car door? What about the thousands of people that were killed by Iran?"

No, mistakes are made. Yes, war is nasty. But I know it's under investigation, and I could have a report for you tomorrow or they'd—I'd ask—I would ask Pete. I would ask Pete Hegseth that question, because they have it under investigation.

Please.

Qreporter53:29

Mr. President, you've been saying all week that this deal permanently prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but the drafts——

That's my opinion.

Q. ——53:35

the drafts of the deal that have been floating around barely mention Iran's nuclear program. So can you explain how exactly the deal achieves that goal?

So, when I say "permanently," it should be permanently, but if it's not permanently, we will bomb them. They will be bombed, just like I bombed them on Wednesday night and Tuesday night and was going to bomb them on Thursday night at a level that was three times greater, and they knew that. I will bomb them.

Now, that's with me as President. If you have a weak, pathetic President, maybe that doesn't happen. But I can only do the job that I have to do. I have a long time to go. I have almost 3 years—close to 3 years. It's—time is going fast.

But our country has become the—we're the most respected country in the world. Those leaders today—they said, "We used to laugh at you." Two years ago, they'd laugh—same guys—they'd laugh at the country. Now they say, "You're the most respected country anywhere in the world."

Militarily—even military—take a look at what happened in—and look at what happened in so many different locations.

Afghanistan. That horrible retreat that these people made. Leaving equipment behind. They weren't under any pressure. You take your time. You can get out. I was going to get out. We're going to get out with dignity and pride, take a hundred percent of the equipment. I was even taking the tents down. But then they got in, and they just left. They left all the equipment. I may get all that equipment back.

Now, here's the thing—more symbolic, because it's a little old now. But we may get it all back.

Qreporter55:07

So you're threatening to——

Afghanistan is kissing our ass. [ Laughter ] You know that?

Qreporter55:13

So you're threatening to bomb Iran if they don't comply, but there's nothing enforceable in the deal itself. Is that correct?

Doesn't have to be. I let them know. I said, "Look, if you don't adhere to the agreement"—I don't want to do that—"but we're going to bomb the hell out of you." And I don't think that they're going to veer from the agreement.

What else am I going to do? Am I going to say: "I'm going to take you to court? Let me take you to court. Let me sue you."

No, we're going to bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement. I don't want them to. I want them to honor the agreement.

Again, the Strait's closed up. Bad things can happen. You know, in war, terrible things happen, like you mentioned the question before about a school gets hit. Other things get hit. Bad things happen in war. War is a nasty place. I see it. I see it. I see it better than maybe anybody has ever seen it.

Qreporter56:03

Have you shared the text of the agreement with the Israelis?

Go ahead, please.

Qreporter56:08

Thank you, President Trump. Oil prices are now plummeting. How do you see this agreement further affecting energy prices in the U.S. and the U.S. economy in the long term?

And secondly, Mr. President, how do you think Vice President J.D. Vance did on "The View" yesterday?

Well, first of all, thank you for the word "plummeting," because that's what's happening. Oil prices are plummeting. And that means oil prices are going to come down.

You know, if you make donuts, you have a heating, you have a stove, and you have to buy the heat you need—the gas or the electricity or whatever you're using.

And when oil prices come down—oil is the biggest thing. Oil is—you get oil prices coming down—and they're going to come down. And we're hitting in the threes now for gasoline. And that'll come down a lot lower.

So I was in Iowa just before this started. I was saying to myself, "I can't believe—we're doing so well, but I have to go, and we have to put out this fire in Iran," because I don't want them using a nuclear weapon.

They would have used a nuclear weapon. A hundred percent, they would have used it. The only question is: Was it going to be that day or that week? They would have used a nuclear weapon. They were on the way. And I said, "We're going to have to put out the fire."

And I said, "You know, oil prices"—so gasoline—we passed two gas stations in Iowa. I made a speech up there. The people are great. I won it by so much, and I love the people—farmers. And we passed two gas stations. One was $1.85. One was $1.91. Now, that's Iowa. But it was—I mean, California has all those crazy taxes that they put on. You know, California taxes. But the oil was down to $2 to—I'd say, between $2 and $2.50. And it was heading down further. And we were going to have a great run.

We took a little journey down to a place called the Islamic Republic of Iran. And we bombed the hell out of them, and now they can never have a nuclear weapon.

Now, we had a disturbance, but I must say it was much less than anybody thought. The oil never went to $350 a barrel. It went to $115, $120. The oil never went anywhere near that.

And the other thing—I thought the stock market would go down 25 or 30 percent. The stock market—a week ago, before we started this—was higher than it was when we started, which tells you that we have a very resilient economy.

We have the strongest economy we've ever had.

Now, the word "affordability." It's a fake word for—by—made up by the Democrats.

Here's where it's fake—because they made it up, because I inherited these prices. And when I had my first news conference, first day, they started screaming, "Affordability." The Democrats: "Affordability. Affordability," they're screaming. I say, "What's that all about?" They gave it to me. They gave it to me. It's affordability. And they use that word to a fare-thee-well.

Well, they were the ones that created the affordability crisis. I'm the one that got it down. Remember, highest insurance rates in history; highest rates for everything.

Eggs. Remember eggs? They were four times more expensive than they were in my administration. And I got it down, Peter, very quickly.

Our Secretary did a good job—of Agriculture. Brooke—she did a great job with eggs and everything else.

And now that the oil is coming down, you're going to see everything follow. Everything follows the cost of energy. And we're going to end up having the lowest energy anywhere in the world.

Please.

Yes.

Qreporter59:40

Mr. President—Mr. President——

No.

Please.

Qreporter59:43

Thank you——

You're from ABC. You're fake news.

Go ahead.

Qreporter59:48

To follow up on oil, can you confirm: Will Iran be able to immediately sell their oil to market? And will U.S. sanctions snapback immediately if——

They could. Yes.

Q. ——59:58

there is a delay or collapse in the talks?

And then, relatedly, is there any safeguard in this deal to prevent Iran from charging what they say could be fees after the 60-day extension?

No, the thing that's going to stop them from doing that—because you can't cover everything in a document—is common sense. They don't want to get bombed. They don't want to get hit. As far as sanctions are concerned, at some point—you know, we have sanctions, which will never let them rebuild. They would have no money. They would be in poverty. The 91 million people would starve.

So something will happen as soon as they behave. When they behave, we're going to let that go. We're going to have to. I put sanctions on a lot of people, and then I let them go. A lot of countries.

Yes, please.

Qreporter1:00:42

Thank you, Mr. President. My name is Shinji Abe. I'm a Japanese Yomiuri newspaper company from the Washington correspondent. My question is about the Strait of Hormuz. Did you ask other G–7 nations to send military force? And what specifically are you asking of Japan, or if you——

Where are you from?

Qreporter1:01:01

I'm from Japan.

From where?

Qreporter1:01:04

Japan.

And is military support——

I just left—I just left your Prime Minister. Japan's doing very well. She's my biggest fan. I have to tell you, she thinks I did a great job. You have to call her and ask her.

Qreporter1:01:15

And—[ laughter ]——

She's doing a very good job, by the way.

Go ahead.

Qreporter1:01:19

And military support is no longer necessary?

Yes, but what do you want to know? Go ahead, just tell me. What do you want to know?

Qreporter1:01:26

Okay. My question is: Did you ask other G–7 nations to send military force? And what specifically are you asking of Japan?

To send the air force? For what?

Secretary of State Marco A. Rubio1:01:37

He's asking if you asked any countries to send military force into the Strait of Hormuz.

Oh, other countries, not just Japan. No. No, I don't need—we don't need it. Oh, by the way, they all want to do it. They all want to do it—every single one of them. They want to go be a part of it now. Not while the war was going on. I was a little disappointed.

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