Will Donald Trump say “Deal / Settled”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal / Settled” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deal / Settled
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don't want anything to do with Norway. Think of it. I settled eight wars and I got two more coming. And what did I…
…I hope that people are looking into Act Blue. It's another fake deal that they have going. But this is going to be somewhat of…
…are nicer ways for you to make a living. You want to deal with these maniacs? You can deal if you want, but there are…
…I announced it. I thought it was going to be a big deal. Nobody even covered it. I took a because you know that if…
…successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It Down Act, a big deal.And it went almost, I think, unanimously through Congress. We are very bipartisan.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Deal / Settled |  Kalshi | Yes | 34 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deal / Settled”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal / Settled” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deal / Settled” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deal / Settled’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deal-or-settled (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deal%20%2F%20settled · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP