Donald Trump: Speech, Apr 2, 2025
Kalshi What will President Trump say during the Rose Garden tariff speech?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Tariff event on April 2?
Markets
48 words · 35 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| TSMC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reciprocal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Canada | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liberation Day | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rip off / Ripped off | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ford / GM / Chrysler | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mineral | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deficit | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fantastic job | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| India | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| VAT / Value added tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NAFTA | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Billion 10+ times | Yes | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 17%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 50%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carney | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copper | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| External Revenue Service | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mandate | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Electricity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Made in America 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Piggy Bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=73 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP