Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 20, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Australia PM events on October 20?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thank you 8+ times | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion / Million / Billion 10+ times | Yes | 58%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | Yes | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Australia 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mineral / Earth 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 36%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| 8 Wars | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| AUKUS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Aussie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pacific | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Where are you from | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Aluminum | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=142 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-australia-pm-events-on-october-20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP